TransUnion's latest consumer credit forecast for 2026 reveals a picture of cautious stability across major lending categories. After years of post-pandemic volatility, delinquency rates are showing signs of leveling off, though they remain elevated compared to the artificially low rates seen during 2020-2021.
Credit card balances continue their steady climb, expected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2026. However, the growth rate is slowing significantly—down from 12.6% in 2023 to a projected 2.3% in 2026. This deceleration suggests consumers may be reaching their credit capacity or exercising more restraint in response to persistent interest rates.
Delinquency trends paint a nuanced picture across product types. Card delinquencies are essentially plateauing at 2.57%, while auto loan delinquencies show a similar stabilization at 1.54%. Both rates remain elevated compared to the pandemic-era lows but are far from crisis levels. The personal loan sector (UPL) is also stabilizing, with delinquencies expected to hold nearly steady at 3.75%.
Mortgage delinquencies stand out as the one category showing more notable movement, projected to reach 1.65% by Q4 2026—a 7.0% year-over-year increase. While this represents the most significant rise among the major credit categories, it's important to note that these rates remain historically low compared to the financial crisis era, when mortgage delinquencies peaked above 8%.
For lenders, this forecast suggests a "new normal" in credit performance. The era of pandemic-suppressed delinquencies has definitively ended, but the data doesn't signal an imminent crisis. Instead, lenders should prepare for a sustained period of elevated but stable delinquency rates as consumers navigate higher costs of living and borrowing.
Original Article: Source: TransUnion 2026 Consumer Credit Forecast (PDF document provided directly, December 10, 2025)